[SMM Analysis] EMM Production Slightly Contracted in November, Expected to Rebound in December

In November 2025, China's EMM production experienced a slight MoM decline, primarily driven by weakening demand following the end of the traditional peak consumption season, coupled with high prices dampening the purchase willingness of downstream steel mills. Although the supply side maintained a tight balance supported by costs, the production pace adjusted in line with demand, showing an overall contraction trend.

In November, EMM enterprises still prioritized fulfilling long-term contracts, leading to a continued tightening of available resources in the spot market, which supported prices within the high range of 14,000-14,100 yuan/mt. The tender volume for EMM from some mainstream downstream steel mills decreased MoM, with low acceptance of high quotations. Traders followed producers in holding prices firm while avoiding blind stockpiling, resulting in relatively sluggish market transactions. Downstream enterprises, facing cost pressure, considered raw material substitution options, and the wait-and-see sentiment intensified, forming a negative feedback loop of "high prices - weak procurement - declining production." Additionally, after the traditional peak consumption season ended, core downstream demand from domestic special steel and stainless steel sectors cooled comprehensively, and overseas stockpiling demand also declined, ultimately leading to a slowdown in the production schedule of manganese plants and a synchronous contraction in production alongside demand.

Looking ahead to December 2025, as pre-holiday restocking demand is gradually released, downstream enterprises may initiate phased procurement. Combined with persistent cost support, EMM production is expected to show a MoM rebound. However, the extent of the rebound will be constrained by the strength of the end-use demand recovery.